Fortune Watch

Future Stock Prices Depend on Earnings. As an investor in stocks, you should always be asking what the company will do for me tomorrow.

By that, I mean investors are particularly concerned with future growth in earnings and, ultimately, the stock’s price and dividend if it pays one.

A company can have a great year and the stock can reflect that performance, but if there is no brighter tomorrow, how is future stock price growth going to be justified?

This concern with short-term growth is often criticized as a problem that penalizes companies that make decisions good for the long term, but detrimental in the near term to earnings.

That’s not always the case if management is trusted by investors to make good decisions, however in many cases companies’ stock is hammered in the market if there is not a clear pattern of year-to-year growth.This is especially true of companies tagged as growth investments and in sectors such as technology that are marked by high growth rates.

While this may seem unfair to some, it is a perfectly logical way for the market to allocate investment assets to those stocks that will produce the highest returns in the near future.Individual investors are rightly cautioned to invest for the long term and many successful investors do just that, however they only do so when they find a company that has a good chance of providing a sustained growth over a long period.

Investing in company for the long term that does not grow is a pointless exercise (unless you are investing in a utility, for example, for a nice fat dividend and don’t care much about the share price).

The message is stock investors should always looking forward and should not be concerned with past performance other than in providing a reference point for judging performance.

Investing in conservative blue chip stocks may not have the allure of a hot high-tech investment, but it can be highly rewarding nonetheless, as good quality stocks have outperformed other investment classes over the long term.

Historically, investing in stocks has generated a return, over time, of between 11 and 15 percent annually depending how aggressive you are. Stocks outperform other investments since they incur more risk. Stock investors are at the bottom of the corporate “food chain.” First, companies have to pay their employees and suppliers. Then they pay their bondholders. After this come the preferred shareholders. Companies have an obligation to pay all these stakeholders first, and if there is money leftover it is paid to the stockholders through dividends or retained earnings. Sometimes there is a lot of money left over for stockholders, and in other cases there isn’t. Thus, investing in stocks is risky because investors never know exactly what they are going to receive for their investment.

What are the attractions of blue chip stocks? Great long-term rates of return. Unlike mutual funds, another relatively safe, long term investment category, there are no ongoing fees.You become a part owner of a company.

So much for the benefits – what about the risks? Some investors can’t tolerate both the risk associated with investing in the stock market and the risk associated with investing in one company. Not all blue chips are created equal.

If you don’t have the time and skill to identify a good quality company at a fair price don’t invest directly. Rather, you should consider a good mutual fund.

Selecting a blue chip company is only part of the battle – determining the appropriate price is the other. In reality supply and demand for a stock sets the stock’s daily price, and demand for a stock will increase or decrease depending of the outlook for a company. Thus, stock prices are driven by investor expectations for a company, the more favorable the expectations the better the stock price. In short, the stock market is a voting machine and much of the time it is voting based on investors’ fear or greed, not on their rational assessments of value. Stock prices can swing widely in the short-term but they eventually converge to their intrinsic value over the long-term.

Investors should look at good companies with great expectations that are not yet embedded in the price of a stock.

Creating an investment plan can be a tricky but rewarding experience. The key to having a solid and fully customized plan is to know what your financial goals are and make sure your plan fit your needs. Investment plans are extremely popular because many people, due to the unstable job market and insufficient social security, are trying to save for their retirement.

Investment plans help investors buy a set number of stocks, bonds, and funds at regular intervals. This occurs automatically and does not require the investor’s constant attention. If you are interested in an investment plan below are some basic information and helpful tips about investment plans and how to choose the one that best fits your needs.

How does it work? Investment plans automate the investment process. Initially the investor picks out stocks which they want to regularly invest in. Then money is automatically removed from one of your financial accounts (checking, savings, or money market) and stocks are purchase for you by the investment plan coordinator.

As the investor you can make adjustments to how much money, how often, and what type of stocks will be purchased. Most brokerages, which offer investment plans, allow you to make changes at a small fee. However, one of the benefits of online investment firms is that many of the traditional fee based options, like adjusting your financial plan, are free of charge.

How much? Deciding how much you should invest is never an easy question. Only you know your financial situation and how much you can afford to put toward an investment plan. It is important to not over invest only to leave yourself short in paying your monthly obligations. You need to make sure the money you choose to invest will be available at the same time each month in the same amount. Think about the future. Perhaps this month you have more disposable income available however, most months you do not. It is better to invest less and not run short at the end of the month.

Becoming wealthy is not a matter of how much you earn, who your parents are, or what you do, it is a matter of managing your money properly.

…unless the stocks you own ARE beating the market!

There is no way on earth you could ever beat the market if the stocks you hold are not keeping up with the market. And hopefully, staying ahead of the market.

But yet, that’s what lots of people try to do. They’d rather keep all the dogs in their account and maybe “take a flyer” on one stock, hoping for a miracle. It’s like trying to win a Derby horse race with your Donkey. It just ain’t gonna happen.

But hey, maybe you don’t want to beat the market overall. Maybe you just want to own the BEST semiconductor stocks, or the best retailers, or the best utilities.

Seriously, how would you even KNOW if your stocks or mutual funds are beating the market, or are the best names to own in their group? Well, I can tell you this…the best indicator I’ve ever seen in twenty-plus years in the business has been relative strength. What is relative strength? It is simply the measure of how your mutual fund or stock is doing, compared to a group of other stocks, funds or indexes…or the market overall.

Perhaps you want to compare Intel with other semiconductor stocks. Maybe you want to compare Microsoft with the S&P 500 Index. Maybe you want to compare your mutual fund against the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

This is a very easy calculation. Here is how you do it: Simply divide the price of your stock or mutual fund against whatever yardstick you choose. You’ll get a fractional number as the result. But slide the decimal over so you can work with whole numbers. Then we begin plotting that result daily on a point & figure chart.

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Market timing is the most important expertise you must master to become a successful trader. This is where the majority of stock market traders fall by the wayside. Buy too early and you are squeezed out on any temporary falls. Sell short too early and you are squeezed out on any up moves, even if, after a few days or so, you are proved correct in your analysis..

Most of the pundits and so called “experts” will tell you that stock market timing doesn’t work, that it’s dangerous, and that “buy and hold” is the best and only way to invest.

If you want to be a successful stock market timer, you need three key elements: A system that actually works. Discipline to follow the system. Patience to stick with the system long enough to make it work for you.

And it’s tough to do all three. Here’s why:

Most market timing systems don’t work. Or don’t work consistently enough to be valid. Some will work in trending markets but get slaughtered during flat times. Most systems don’t work in all markets.

Investors lack the discipline to follow a proven system. Once an investor finds a viable program, he or she needs the discipline to follow it. Sadly, some either can’t or won’t do that. When they let their own judgment or intuitions interfere, they don’t get the results they want or could have enjoyed by simply following the buy and sell signals they receive.

Investors lack the patience to stick with their system. The fact is, no method will win every trade, and investors without patience will find themselves hopping from advisor to advisor with no rewards to show for their efforts.

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Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy in which a person invests a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis, usually monthly purchase of shares in a mutual fund. When the fund’s price declines, the investor receives slightly more shares for the fixed investment amount, and slightly fewer when the share price is up. It turns out that this strategy results in lowering the average cost slightly, assuming the fund fluctuates up and down

Dollar-cost averaging is carried out simply by investing a fixed dollar amount into your mutual fund (or other investment instrument) at pre-determined intervals. The amount of money invested at each interval remains the same over time, but the number of shares purchased varies based on the market value of the shares.

When the markets are up, you buy fewer shares per dollar invested due to the higher cost per share. When the markets are down, the situation is reversed and you purchase a greater of number of shares per dollar invested. It’s a strategic way to invest because you buy more shares when the cost is low, so you get an average cost per share over time, meaning you don’t have to invest the time and effort to monitor market movements and strategically time your investments.

Dollar-cost averaging – the basic premise behind employer-sponsored savings plans like is the practice of investing a set amount each month in a particular investment vehicle. As the share price of your investment fluctuates, so will the number of shares your set amount buys. Sometimes you’ll pay more and sometimes the stock or mutual fund will decrease in value, allowing you to purchase additional shares.

With the vast and varied information available on investing, many have chosen to stop chasing yesterday’s high returns. Using dollar-cost averaging helps them ride out the ups and downs of the market.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels r chancing economic conditions. Dollar cost average does not assure a profit and does not protect against a loss in a declining market.

Dollar-cost averaging isn’t for everyone. Short-term investors and those concerned about market volatility won’t benefit from the slow and steady pace of dollar-cost averaging. Always meet with a financial professional before investing. For those who want to invest a consistent amount each month and potentially lessen the effects of market volatility, it might be an option.

The main conclusion I can draw that one should not delay investing. If you want to invest, say, $100 in a mutual fund in a year, you should start invest immediately. If you have $1,200 spare money to invest on the first work day of January, split it to quarterly or monthly, as the markets could be on a high on 1st January and you are stuck with the same purchase price. It also helps make investing easier to budget, as the same dollar amount will be purchased at regular, predictable intervals.

Human’s are rational beings. We have the most developed brain among all species. However, in spite of all this, we are foremost governed by his emotions. It is said, man is ruled more by the heart than his mind. And these emotions, more often than not, play a huge role in man’s investments too. This is the sole reason, say, why the same person at one time might want to invest in the stock market, while at another time might find the same too much of a risk.

Investors may also feel attached towards a specific company and continue owning the stock without regards to its fundamental. For example, you might like Google’s search engine so much that you decide to buy the stock at $ 350 without doing any research. You figure that Google’s search engine is so much better that buying the stock will give you profit, right? Wrong. Now, I am not here to bash Google as an investment, but analyzing an investment goes beyond the products and companies. Most investors can identify good companies and products. It is quite easy. You know that a BMW is a better car than a Ford.

Emotions often also control the company one is investing in. Generally brand loyalties come into the picture here too. Example, if someone prefers purchasing his sportswear from Nike, he may want to invest in its stocks too, although the Reebok stocks may be doing far better. It is always better to conduct a proper research and check the latest trends rather than blindly following your heart. Keep in mind that you are currently dealing with the stock market and not the super market.

Google is a good search engine, probably the best that is ever produced so far. Sure, you probably pay more for Google than other generic search engines. But, please don’t over pay. You invest in Google to profit from it not because you like its products.

So, how do we eliminate emotion from our investing decision? We can’t eliminate it completely but there are certainly tools that might help. One is to calculate the fair value of a common stock that you are investing in. I covered this plenty of times but basically, the fair value of an investment is dependent upon the streams of profit generated by it. In the long run, if company A earns more than company B, then company A will be valued more than company B..

I know I don’t exactly give you the best solution to the problem. Emotion is hard to ignore. I am not immune to that. But following your emotion will cost you a lot of money. Don’t follow the herd and keep your focus on the fair value of your stock and you will do really well.

You need to realize that no matter how hard we try we cannot completely eliminate our emotions from playing a role while investing. But what we can do is apply equal amounts of common sense and logic. Always be aware that it is your finances that are going to be affected in this venture. Calculate the fair value of a common stock that you are investing in. The fair value of an investment is based upon the profit generated by it.

If, for a considerable period, organization A does far better than organization B, A will surely be far more valued than B. While investing, avoid the herd mentality, stay calm and always go in for the firm with the better fair value. This will ensure that you are a happy investor, earning high profits on your investments.

Penny Stocks are usually priced below a dollar and trading with them is fickle and risky game. While Penny stocks look like they follow the “more bang for your buck” principle, having a lot of penny stocks is very risky. Penny stocks are also referred to as small caps and micro caps. As with all trading, penny stock trading has its ups and downs. Penny stocks can give your large profits over a short time; they can also give you huge losses in the same short time.

Because of the high risks and alluring prices of penny stocks traders should be mindful of a few things. If you see that there are stocks for less than a cent, you shouldn’t invest. In the penny stock market, any thing less than a penny isn’t worth investing. You will never gain anything from a stock under a penny. In fact, it is just like the regular stock market except you buy stocks for much less, that’s why you should treat the penny stock market like any other investment.

You need to know every thing and I repeat EVERYTHING about the company and the stock that you are purchasing. With proper investing, you should be able to benefit from quick gains from the penny stock market. So be careful when buying stocks that have uneven ownership distribution.

The only way to be successful with the penny stock market is to know what companies to invest in through research.
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Why Acting on Price can be a Mistake.

Buy low and sell high is the ultimate guide to successful stock investing. It is also the reverse of what many investors do. It’s not that investors start out to do that, but too often, they use price, and in particular price movement, as their only signal to buy or sell.

Stocks that have gone up recently, especially those with a lot of press, often attract even more buyers. This obviously drives the price up even higher.

People get excited about what they read and see and want a part of the action. They jump into a stock that is already trading at a premium – they buy high.

Experienced traders can make money jumping in and out of a stock that’s caught the public’s attention, but it’s not a game for the inexperienced and it’s not investing.

There’s risk involved and tax consequences along with other issues that mean most investors should leave this activity to short-term traders.

For most investors, trying to grab a piece of the latest flashy stock, usually means paying too much (buying high).Bad Decision: The other side of the market is when a stock has fallen; most investors may want to sell along with the rest of the market. If you go by price alone, this can be a bad decision (sell low).

There are many reasons a stock’s price drops and some of them have nothing to do with the soundness of the investment. That’s why if you only follow price you may miss an opportunity.

After a stock’s price has fallen can be a great time to buy (buy low) if you have done your research on the company.

If all you know about a stock is the price, you may (and likely will) make investing mistakes. Remember, if a stock has had a good run up it may be time to sell, not buy (sell high). Similarly, if a stock has dropped like a rock, it may be a good time to buy rather than sell (buy low). You won’t know what to do unless you understand a lot more about the company than its stock price.

If you’ve never invested in stocks before and are about to buy some for the first time, you should understand what to look for and what factors to consider when selecting a stockbroker. It can be a good idea to use a stockbroker for an active management of your stocks or mutual fund portfolio. Most investors will use a stockbroker at one time or another.

First of all, what is a stockbroker? Well, I’m not really sure… 😉 …just kidding. A stockbroker is an intermediary between you and the stock market, which is an exchange where shares of stock in public companies are openly traded. When you buy or sell a stock, also known as a “security,” you must place the order through a broker, who then transacts your business by placing the order on the market.

I personally use a discount broker only to carry out my order, I am willing to listen to a full-service broker’s story but in the end invariably the decision is mine. If you have done your homework, trust me a broker doesn’t know much more than you.

A discount broker is someone who gives you zero advice, and just executes your market orders for you, but does nothing else. Therefore, a discount broker usually doesn’t collect commissions. Instead, they usually charge a flat annual fee and are paid a salary. Internet brokers such as Etrade or Ameritrade are discount brokers that work on commission. They allow you to place your market orders online, and the website itself is the broker. Internet brokers usually charge a much smaller commission than anyone else.

If you use the services of your bank there are some facts to consider. When you talk about the options you have to invest your money, they will certainly recommend the funds they control themselves. Do they recommend other banks portfolios? I don’t think so. If you go to a car dealer that sell Ford, do they recommend you to buy a Lexus?

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