Fortune Watch

In life you should expect the unexpected, and this is why you need an emergency fund. The best you can do is to prepare for emergencies that require access to additional money and having an emergency fund is the ideal solution.

None of us have the ability to foresee the future or predict the hurdles which lie ahead of us. This makes building an emergency fund a financial priority. People who are living on a lean-and-mean budget will have the toughest time setting aside money for emergencies. If it’s possible to squeeze out another $40 or $50 each month and put it in a money market account, it’s worth doing.

Establishing an emergency savings account is vital in good times and in bad. The purpose of the fund is to sock away three to six month’s living expenses. But this money could also be used when you’re staring at major, unplanned expenses such as a car breakdown or a leaky roof.

Housing a small rainy day fund should be a vital part of an individual’s financial goals. This is of high importance if you don’t already have readily available funds in your account for covering any unanticipated expenses. They provide financial security because they give you funds to fall back on if you become ill, or if you or your spouse loses your job, you incur large medical bills, or have an unexpected large bill such as a major car or home repair. You do not want to end up in a situation where you have to buy daily necessities on credit.

Saving your money in a small account for emergencies is definitely a better alternative to taking a loan or cashing in your long-term investments. If you take a loan, there is the additional burden of paying interest. Encashment of your investments before maturity means not only will you lose out the interest, but also some part of the original investment. This will also set you back significantly in your overall financial plan.

I echo the idea of treating the emergency fund as a bill, put the money away and don’t be tempted by the latest sale. Success at building an emergency fund depends on consistency of saving money on a regular basis and keeping this money separate from the general savings account. Otherwise you will be tempted to dip into these monies even if you simply run over your budget at a certain point.

The size of the special savings account will depend on your personal situation. I always advice my clients to keep between three to six months salary in the reserve. But you will have to decide on an appropriate amount based factors such as your Dependants and fixed monthly expenses.

Stock prices reflect the trading decisions of many individuals and I have been thinking of starting a stock market prediction business. Clearly, there is a huge market for timely information of this type, and just as clearly, predicting the future is much easier than dealing with the realities of what is actually happening at the moment.

If investors could know what’s going to happen next, they could develop a plan to deal with it NOW; maybe Wall Street will help me get this new business up and running.

What’s that? Wall Street institutions already spend billions predicting future price movements of the stock market, individual issues & indices, commodities, and hemlines. Really? Is that right also? Economists have been analyzing and charting world economies for decades, showing clearly the repetitive cyclical changes and their upward bias.

Funny, or strange would be more accurate, that the advice generated by the oracle of Wall Street always assumes that the current environment, good or bad, will be everlasting. Isn’t it this kind of thinking that prolongs the downturns and “bubbles” the advances– in all markets?

If it were true that our favorite pinstriped product pushers can actually predict the future, why would investors do what they do in response to the predictions? Why would financial professionals holler: “sell” at lower prices, and “buy at any price” when market valuations surge upward?

Here’s some experienced advice that you will not find on the “street of dreams”: Sell into rallies. Buy on bad news. Buy slowly; sell quickly. Always sell too soon. Always buy too soon. And by the way, who do you think is buying and selling the securities you have been told to dump or to hoard?

No self respecting guru would ever refute the basic truth that the market indices, individual issue prices, the economy, and interest rates will always move in both directions… unpredictably and forever.

This is where you need to focus your attention if you want to get through the investment process with your sanity. You must expect and plan for directional change and learn to use it to your advantage. Tranquilizers may be necessary to get you through the first few cycles, but if you have minimized your risk properly, you can thrive on the long-term, and very predictable, volatility of the markets.

The risk of loss cannot be eliminated. A simple change in a security’s market value is not a loss of principal just as certainly as a change in the market value of your home is not evidence of termite damage. Markets are complicated, and emotions about one’s assets are even more so.

Cyclical changes in all markets are predictable conceptually, just as knowing approximately where you are within a cycle is knowable actually. The key is to understand what your securities are expected to do within the cyclical framework.

Predicting individual stock prices is a totally different ball game that requires a more powerful crystal ball and an array of semi legal and illegal relationships that are unavailable to most investors. There are just too many variables.

Prediction is impossible, but probability assessment has enormous potential. Investing in individual issues has to be done differently, and with rules, guidelines, and judgment. It has to be done unemotionally and rationally, monitored regularly, and analyzed with performance evaluation tools that are portfolio specific.

This is not nearly as difficult as it sounds, and if you are a shopper who looks for bargains elsewhere in your life, you should have no trouble understanding the workings of the stock market. There are only three decision-making scenarios that investors need to master if they want to predict long-term success for their portfolios.

The “Buy” decision has two important steps: Step one allocates the available investment assets, by purpose, between equity and income securities, based on the goals of the investment program. It is done best using a “cost” based model. Step two establishes strict selection quality measures and diversifies properly within each security class.

The “Sell” decision involves setting reasonable profit taking targets for every security in the portfolio. Loss taking decisions must not be undertaken out of fear, and must be avoided during severe market downturns. Understanding the forces causing market value shrinkage is important and a highly disciplined hand at the emotion control button is essential.

Market Value is a decision making assistant… buy lower & sell higher than you buy.

The “Hold” decision is most common, and it regulates and moderates the process, keeping it less than frantic. Continue to hold on to fundamentally strong equities and income securities that are providing their normal cash flow. Hold weaker positions until the appropriate cycle (market, interest, economy) changes direction, and then consider whether to sell or to buy more.

Wall Street spins reality in whatever manner it can to make most investors unhappy, thus increasing new product sales. Your confusion, fear, greed, impatience, and need for a quick panacea fuels their profit engines, not yours.

What will the new decade bring for employment and career prospects? An interesting set of statistics posted by the Bureau of Labour offers some insight into trends and provides information on where career and business opportunities might lie.
1) Management and consulting services

Leading the list of five industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth potential in the ten years from 2008 to 2018 is the category of management, scientific and technical consulting services.

The sector falls under professional and business and could see an increase of 82% in employment figures. It will certainly prove to be the decade for consultants and professional advisors.

2) Services for the elderly and persons with disabilities

There is no prize for reckognising this as a growth area for employment. This field, falling under health care and social assistance, is considered to grow by 73% in providing employment and business opportunities.

With the ageing population in almost all parts of the world, it is not difficult to see that providing care for elderly people will be a substantial growth industry. Furthermore, as civilisations become more aware of the rights of disabled people, this in turn will lead to more inclusive care facilities for disabled people.

Besides the trend towards mainstreaming disabled people in schooling and the work environment there is a further push to allow disabled people to live independent lives. This particular trend will lead to a growth in the category described in number three.

3) Home health care services

Another winner in the health care and social assistance sector is the home health care service industry. This is considered to have growth potential of 46% for wage and salary employment.

Allowing the elderly to remain at home and providing assistance with care will become a more humane way of dealing with frail people. Add to this the care of disabled people at home rather than at institutions and one can see this sector could be in for a growth in employment opportunities.

4) Computer system designs

Systems design and related services falling under professional and business sector is considered a growth area in terms of wage and employment and is said to be growing by up to 45% in the period under discussion.

Technological innovation will provide for a large scale requirement for computer systems. Every gadget has a computer chip and operating system. Designing these will allow for more employment. Could it mean that computer science should become a compulsory subject in schools?

5) Retail trade

The retail trade may be growing and showing an increase in wage and employment opportunities of 40% during the term under discussion. Some of this growth could be diversified though in that the retail sector is showing particular growth in the online environment.

Some parts of retail will migrate more towards the computer system design skills set and move away from stacking shelves and ringing up goods on a cash register. Either way, retail will employ more people.

These are some interesting trends and it might be advisable for young people and members of the older generation finding themselves without traditional jobs to focus on acquiring skills in any of the above industry sectors.