Fortune Watch

A participant in the morning Working Capital Model (WCM) investment workshop observed: I’ve noticed that my account balances are returning to their (June 2007) levels. People are talking down the economy and the dollar. Is there any preemptive action I need to take?

An afternoon workshop attendee spoke of a similar predicament, but cautioned that (with new high market value levels approaching) a repeat of the June 2007 through early March 2009 correction must be avoided— a portfolio protection plan is essential!

What are they missing?

These investors are taking pretty much for granted the fact that their investment portfolios had more than merely survived the most severe correction in financial market history. They had recouped all of their market value, and maintained their cash flow to boot. The market averages remain 40% below their 2007 highs.

Their preemptive portfolio protection plan was already in place — and it worked amazingly well, as it certainly should for anyone who follows the general principles and disciplined strategies of the WCM.

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Emphasize tradition and heritage in your advertising campaigns and don’t cut prices, said marketing guru, Martin Lindstrom, as he revealed his top 10 tips for the advertising during the economic downturn.

Brands that invest in marketing during a recession tend to gain market share as their competitors lose focus on their overall strategy, he said. Lindstrom was speaking in the run-up to his Buyology Symposium, held recently at Dubai. The symposium – the first time it was held in the Gulf – will cover the impact of subliminal advertising and the revolutionary influence of neuroscience in marketing.

The book, Buyology, which was released in October, is the result of a groundbreaking study on NeuroMarketing, which studied thousands of volunteers and was the largest of its kind ever taken.
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Can lawmakers who don’t have the courage or intelligence to outlaw texting while driving really be expected to create a saner tax structure? Hmmm.

Developing a fairer tax environment is much less an economics problem than it is a political dilemma and, as many of you observed, it is unlikely that anything “tax” will be improved upon until there is some serious facial (and cultural) change in Washington.

Politicians focus on one issue at a time, and pretend to have problems dealing with inter-related programs. Tenured politicians have a vested interest in resisting any change that involves their spheres of influence. Both parties are embarrassingly mired in twentieth century class warfare that stifles all forms of productive debate.

Tax cuts don’t just benefit the rich. In fact, they provide the opportunity for everyone to attain greater wealth. Demand directs resources far better than punitive taxation. Money in consumer hands will fuel social and environmentally friendly change.

“You cannot eliminate revenue from one program without replacing it from another, equally complicated, one”, career politicians will say philosophically.

They have little to gain from simplifying the tax collection system — yet it is obvious that a whole new approach would solve most of the economic woes plaguing us today, domestic and international.
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If you serach for online casinos at the moment there are thousands of casinos around at the moment, both online and land based.  But can it be done? If you search or visit the best online casino can you find a source of betting systems that don’t require you to pay $100’s up-front with no proof that they work? Can any betting system work at a casino? This site offers listings of top rated online casinos including those that accept US players and features a forum.

With the right system, and most importantly, the right discipline, it can be done. Casinos typically work to a ‘House Edge’ of 1 to 5%. For every $100 gambled, the player will lose $1 to $5. It doesn’t sound like much, but in a multi-billion dollar industry it’s enough to make online casinos some of the most profitable sites in the world, and to build Las Vegas up from nothing in just a few years.

A whole lot of people will tell you that it is impossible to overturn this edge, and from a purely mathematical point of view they are correct. The Laws of Probability mean that you cannot turn a negative into a positive. If you are playing Roulette, and Black has come up 10 times in a row, the odds of it coming up next time are still 50/50. (Ignoring the ‘0’ and ’00’) According to the Laws of Probability, there is no reason why Black cannot come up 100 times in a row. This argument, while scientifically sound, ignores the Law of Possibility, which means that in the real world, the chances of Black coming up 100 times in a row is so slight that it can be ignored.
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Actually, hindsight and the Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Bargain Level Monitor tell us that it died early in March 2009. More realistically, however, corrections don’t die quite so abruptly. They are supplanted by rallies— and vice versa.

The IGVSI Bargain Stock Monitor tracks the price movements of an elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities. Their “eliteness” is earned by a B+ or higher S & P rating, a history of profitability, and the fact that they pay dividends to their shareholders.

Unfortunately, they are the same companies whose boards of directors allow senior executives to pillage treasuries with obscene salaries and bonuses— and elite does not mean invulnerable to the whims of markets and governments.

But, for Working Capital Model (WCM) equity investments, they are just perfectly less risky (historically) than the others.

An IGVSI equity becomes a bargain stock (or “OK to add to your portfolio if it meets strict WCM diversification and price standards) when it falls at least 20% from its 52-week high. From 15% to 20% down, it is held in a mental “bull pen”, getting ready for the “bigs” after a few more down-tics.
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